If there is a main beneficiary of the war, it is China Sinologist Temur Umarov explains how Beijing, with its peace plan, is trying to distance itself from Russia and prolong the conflict in Ukraine

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on February 24 published a plan to resolve the war in Ukraine The document is called "China's position on a political solution to the Ukrainian crisis" and consists of 12 points - among them a ceasefire, peace talks, guarantees of sovereignty and independence for all countries, as well as the rejection of "expansion of military blocs" and "unilateral sanctions".

Meduza spoke with Sinologist Temur Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about why the document can hardly be considered a sincere attempt to achieve peace, whether Xi Jinping can (and wants) to put pressure on Vladimir Putin, and how Beijing is using its plan to disown ties with Moscow Here are 12 points that China proposed - Why did China come up with a peace plan on the eve of the anniversary of the war? This is a symbolic gesture Is it just a coincidence, or is the country now in need of peace more than before? “I don't think China needs anything in particular right now.

It seems to me that such activation is primarily due to the fact that there are a lot of reports that Beijing actually supports Russia For example, there were reports in the Wall Street Journal and other world media that China was supplying dual-use goods and was about to send lethal weapons to Russia.

Most importantly, Europe has also begun to perceive China as an unspoken ally of the Russian Federation, which is not very beneficial to it That is why, during his visit to Europe, before going to Moscow, Wang Yi said that China stands for the territorial integrity of all countries in the world and is against the use of nuclear weapons - he tried to move as far as possible from the image of a country that supports Russia.

Now China is issuing 12 points, which are not very specific, but still a symbolic document through which the country declares how it relates to the conflict There is nothing new there, but China is no longer just silent.

- Why is the position of an ally of Russia disadvantageous for China? - Firstly, this is a matter of image - China does not want to be perceived as a junior partner who is on the side of Moscow Second, Beijing wants to delay its inevitable conflict with the US.

It is much more profitable for him if this clash does not happen now, because of the war in Ukraine, but sometime later - in 20-30 years, when China will be much better prepared for this — But why then send drones to Russia? Isn't it easier to just not do it, so as not to risk it, because Beijing has no such obligations to Moscow? - There really are no obligations, but there is a desire to enjoy a position convenient for itself as long as possible - Russia attracts the attention of the entire international community, and primarily the United States.

On the other hand, it is beneficial for China to support the Russian regime in the form in which it exists, because the biggest catastrophe for Beijing is the change of power in Russia If the Putin regime, conditionally, does not withstand the onslaught and really hits the wall as a result of the war, this will be a great loss for China, because it will have to build new relations with another government, and it is not clear what kind of political one it is, and this is a very difficult task.

- You think that with the help of the peace plan, China is disowning its ally, but don't some points look like curtseys towards Russia? For example, "do not try to ensure the security of the regions through the expansion of military blocs" and "end unilateral sanctions " - In fact, these are rather not pro-Russian, but pro-Chinese points.

Beijing behaves very pragmatically and agrees only with those moments in the war against Ukraine that are beneficial primarily to itself Beijing itself is now in a state of confrontation with the United States and under Western sanctions - hence these calls.

- And the point about the territorial integrity of all countries is an opaque allusion to the "one-China policy" and the Taiwan issue? — Of course The principle of territorial integrity is the basis of China's foreign policy: no country can interfere in its affairs and treat Taiwan as an independent or special territory.

So this is really primarily about China, and not about Ukraine - As you said, China's peace plan is not very specific.

Is it such a specificity of Chinese diplomacy or is the document deliberately written so vaguely? - I think it's both If we look at any documents that the Chinese Foreign Ministry publishes, we will see a lot in common with this text.

China regularly publishes so-called "White Papers" on foreign policy issues - and they are always very voluminous, vague, "for all that is good and against all that is bad " Don't expect the peace manifesto to have a major impact on the war or put China in some new role in this conflict.

— Can China's activation be connected with the weakening of Turkey's position, which will now be forced to rebuild the country after the earthquake and will not be able to play the role of a mediator as actively? — I don't think that China's position has anything to do with what is happening in Turkey First, Beijing's statement differs little from everything that the authorities have said since the beginning of the war.

Secondly, China is not going to seriously get involved in the war in Ukraine and become an intermediary between the parties Therefore, to say that Turkey is now bound by its problems and China will fill the vacuum that will arise is not entirely true.

It would be a big reputational loss for China to get involved in the conflict, because it is clear to everyone that no country in the world can now force Putin to end the war, and this is the only option acceptable to Ukraine Moreover, the Ukrainian position is a return to the 1991 borders, but no one can convince Putin to do so, not even Xi Jinping.

And he certainly does not want to engage in peace negotiations in such a situation and then fail Chargé d'Affaires of Ukraine in Beijing Zhanna Leshchinskaya called the Chinese proposal a "good sign", but noted that Kyiv was waiting for more active support.

Do you think Ukraine can be satisfied with China's position? “For Ukraine, it is very important now to gather a certain number of countries around itself, and, of course, if you manage to somehow get China’s support, at least symbolically, this will also be a plus, so their position is understandable That is why Ukraine does not go into conflict with China - it is a large country that, in theory, can seriously influence international relations, and no one is going to quarrel with it.

But China cannot influence Russia - Xi Jinping, despite all the talk about indestructible friendship, does not have such an opportunity China was not warned about the upcoming full-scale invasion of Ukraine - and now Xi cannot predict the future actions of the Russian leadership, much less influence them.

Beijing regards Russian foreign policy more as an uncontrollable phenomenon, to which one should try to adapt, but not regulate How did China's position on Ukraine change during the year of the war? At some point, it seemed that Beijing was really disappointed that it was not informed about the war in advance, but in the end it became almost the main global beneficiary of the conflict, including at the expense of cheap energy resources.

Indeed, if there is a main beneficiary of this war, it is China It's not just about energy resources, but also about the fact that helping Ukraine takes a lot of time from the West.

Most importantly, it takes away strength from the United States, which they could use to contain China, which is still considered a priority in American foreign policy But this does not affect the position of Beijing - it has sent ambiguous and contradictory statements, and continues to do so, even in the text that we are discussing.

On the one hand, China says that it supports the territorial integrity of all countries, on the other hand, it writes that Cold War thinking should be a thing of the past It seems to us that if a country is for territorial integrity, then it is for Ukraine, and if it calls for everyone to fight together against American hegemony, then it is for Russia.

But China is calm and comfortable in this strategic ambiguity and it is not yet clear that it is going to move away from such a policy into something more unambiguous Ukrainian diplomats reproach China for that he did not discuss his peace plan with Ukraine, while negotiations with the Russian side are held at the highest level.

Beijing deliberately does not contact with Kiev? - The fact is that China's relations with Russia continue to go uphill for the last decade This movement began in the early 2010s, became even more intense after 2014, and now Russia is the number one strategic partner for China.

This does not mean that they have a consensus on absolutely all issues, but this creates serious benefits for China - for example, Moscow fully supports Beijing in confrontation with the United States, and Russia is the most important asset for Xi Jinping in this regard, including as a nuclear power and a participant in all important international venues Ukraine has never been a priority for China in foreign policy.

Relations were connected mainly with pragmatic issues - China imported weapons from Ukraine, and when the trade war with the United States began, it bought a lot of grain But strategic relations, as with Russia, did not work out here.

After the outbreak of the war, there was practically no contact between Beijing and Kiev, even Xi did not call Zelensky on the phone, although this was a regular practice in peacetime Beijing decided to suspend all contacts with Kiev after the outbreak of the war, precisely so that there would be no impression that China was playing on two fronts and supporting Ukraine behind Russia's back.

Most likely, they will resume only when the situation becomes more predictable and it becomes clear where the conflict is heading - You say that Russia is a very important partner for China, but it seems that China is an even more valuable ally for Russia, one of the last ones.

It is unlikely that Moscow would have withstood the pressure of sanctions without his support Since there is a certain dependence, can China put pressure on Moscow to reach some kind of compromise with Ukraine? - If desired, it can - there really are levers.

But imagine a situation in which China decides that it is still getting involved in a war in Ukraine and starts putting pressure on Russia This will not solve the main issues of China itself - and for Beijing, this is the coming confrontation with the United States.

The leadership of the country thinks that this is inevitable Not now, because at the moment everyone is busy with the war in Ukraine, but sometime in the future.

If China, for example, imposes sanctions, stops importing natural resources, and puts pressure on Moscow in some other way, what will this give Beijing? After that, the USA will not say: “Well, since you did this, it means that we forget all our structural problems and now take you as an ally, as if nothing had happened before ” Of course, this will not happen, so China understands that it needs to continue to send double signals, prepare for a confrontation with the US and be glad that Russia is actively drawing attention to itself.

- That is, China does not experience any inconvenience from the protracted war - it only plays into its hands? “There are no big cons, but there are plenty of opportunities - Apparently, in Europe they do not believe in Chinese diplomacy either.

But maybe there are at least some points in the plan that the West could cling to in order to cooperate with Beijing? — Surely there will be various calls for China to translate its manifesto into some kind of action But without Beijing's will, nothing will happen, so I don't think there are any chances.

as if nothing had happened before " Of course, this will not happen, so China understands that it needs to continue to send double signals, prepare for a confrontation with the US and be glad that Russia is actively drawing attention to itself.

- That is, China does not experience any inconvenience from the protracted war - it only plays into its hands? “There are no big cons, but there are plenty of opportunities - Apparently, in Europe they do not believe in Chinese diplomacy either.

But maybe there are at least some points in the plan that the West could cling to in order to cooperate with Beijing? — Surely there will be various calls for China to translate its manifesto into some kind of action But without Beijing's will, nothing will happen, so I don't think there are any chances.

as if nothing had happened before " Of course, this will not happen, so China understands that it needs to continue to send double signals, prepare for a confrontation with the US and be glad that Russia is actively drawing attention to itself.

- That is, China does not experience any inconvenience from the protracted war - it only plays into its hands? “There are no big cons, but there are plenty of opportunities - Apparently, in Europe they do not believe in Chinese diplomacy either.

But maybe there are at least some points in the plan that the West could cling to in order to cooperate with Beijing? — Surely there will be various calls for China to translate its manifesto into some kind of action But without Beijing's will, nothing will happen, so I don't think there are any chances.

that we should continue to send double signals, prepare for a confrontation with the United States and be glad that Russia is actively drawing attention to itself - That is, China does not experience any inconvenience from the protracted war - it only plays into its hands? “There are no big cons, but there are plenty of opportunities.

- Apparently, in Europe they do not believe in Chinese diplomacy either But maybe there are at least some points in the plan that the West could cling to in order to cooperate with Beijing? — Surely there will be various calls for China to translate its manifesto into some kind of action.

But without Beijing's will, nothing will happen, so I don't think there are any chances that we should continue to send double signals, prepare for a confrontation with the United States and be glad that Russia is actively drawing attention to itself.

- That is, China does not experience any inconvenience from the protracted war - it only plays into its hands? “There are no big cons, but there are plenty of opportunities - Apparently, in Europe they do not believe in Chinese diplomacy either.

But maybe there are at least some points in the plan that the West could cling to in order to cooperate with Beijing? — Surely there will be various calls for China to translate its manifesto into some kind of action But without Beijing's will, nothing will happen, so I don't think there are any chances.

- That is, China does not experience any inconvenience from the protracted war - it only plays into its hands? “There are no big cons, but there are plenty of opportunities - Apparently, in Europe they do not believe in Chinese diplomacy either.

But maybe there are at least some points in the plan that the West could cling to in order to cooperate with Beijing? — Surely there will be various calls for China to translate its manifesto into some kind of action But without Beijing's will, nothing will happen, so I don't think there are any chances.

- That is, China does not experience any inconvenience from the protracted war - it only plays into its hands? “There are no big cons, but there are plenty of opportunities - Apparently, in Europe they do not believe in Chinese diplomacy either.

But maybe there are at least some points in the plan that the West could cling to in order to cooperate with Beijing? — Surely there will be various calls for China to translate its manifesto into some kind of action But without Beijing's will, nothing will happen, so I don't think there are any chances.

to cooperate with Beijing? — Surely there will be various calls for China to translate its manifesto into some kind of action But without Beijing's will, nothing will happen, so I don't think there are any chances.

to cooperate with Beijing? — Surely there will be various calls for China to translate its manifesto into some kind of action But without Beijing's will, nothing will happen, so I don't think there are any chances.

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