The Brazilian imitation of January 6 and the futility of populism

We have been debating for the past two years whether the central element of the January 6 riot, when the mob stormed the Capitol after being enraged by their displeasure with the results of the 2020 election, was ambition in the background or futility and unreality in the background. forehead.

The goal, which was shared by Donald Trump and his close friends, was to start a constitutional crisis that would somehow end with the House of Representatives voting to give Trump a second term in office. Mike Pence's intervention would be the catalyst for this crisis. Because there was no plan for success and because the rioters' violence and barbarism was an expression of dream politics rather than a takeover, the futility fell to them, and it resulted in large-scale arrests and predetermined imprisonment.

And the difficulty in understanding what happened on January 6th is that these components coexisted in a complex arrangement that, in theory, could inspire a wide range of imitations, some empty, tricky, and fanciful, and others destabilizing and downright serious. The riots that occurred in the Brazilian capital over the past weekend that were in support of deposed populist President Jair Bolsonaro resulted in the seizure of government buildings. This is the first significant international imitation of the riot on Capitol Hill to date.

In any case, the imitation of the original event ultimately qualifies as the unreal and pointless, regardless of how we have been viewing it up to this point. Just as the protesters on January 6 wanted Trump to stay in the White House, the rioters wanted Bolsonaro to take back the presidency.

They held the same view as Trump supporters who thought Joe Biden had cheated in the 2020 election: that the presidential election had been rigged. They used language that was similar to that of American Trump supporters.

However, his homage to January 6 was merely a performance with no connection to the realities of power. The timing was off, which was a mistake.

The Brazilian rioters stormed the Plaza of the Three Powers in Brasilia at a time when its main structures—the Congress, the Supreme Court, and the presidential palace—were almost completely empty, choosing to do so rather than attempt to obstruct government operations or prevent a transfer of power. There was no meeting of the Congress.

Bolsonaro was walking in Florida, a long way from the flood-affected areas, while Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who had already been sworn in as president, was visiting them. No transfer of authority needed to be stopped, no government needed to be taken over, and no leader needed to be reinstated.

The date, January 8, is sufficiently close to January 6 to trigger the necessary jolt of imitation, so it seemed to be the only justification for such a demonstration. Even authors who are concerned with the risks of populism appeared a little surprised by everything that was going on.

The idea behind today's riot, according to Anne Applebaum of The Atlantic, "makes more sense if the idea was to create a visual replay of what happened in Washington," as opposed to actually stopping Lula from "exercising power.". The scene, which included rioters who "almost seemed to be imitating riotous Americans," was described as "surreal" by Yascha Mounk in the same post.

"The Brazilian impersonation seemed even further removed from reality, like a game, because the January 6 adventure itself was riddled with a certain amount of theatricality (the QAnon shaman and selfie-takers were taking part in an erroneous and unreliable political demonstration). imitation of a live-action role-playing game through action role-playing.

All of Bolsonaro's populism cannot be dismissed as a simple fantasy, much like it is impossible to ignore the violence that accompanied both of January's protests because, like Trump, he was actually elected president. (However, right now, it's probably more important to focus on the violence escalating in Peru than the unrest in Brazil, which has been overshadowed by rallies in support of the leftist president who was toppled after attempting to rule by decree.

But when we look at January 8 in Brazil, we see that two trends of modern populism are confirmed. The first is the way in which current populist politicians and movements frequently frighten and alienate interest groups whose support they would otherwise require for any revolution or genuine regime change.

This was very clear on January 6 in the US, where all the major institutions were against the Trumpists, giving rise to populist accusations not only against the news media and the courts but also against the FBI and the Army. The effort to void Lula's election, even in Brazil, which has a history of military dictatorships and an armed force that is unmistakably in favor of Bolsonaro's populism, has instead isolated and disqualified itself.

Second, it is evident that populists of today prefer the dramatic confrontation, the grandiose but fruitless act of protest, to the challenging work of politics and policymaking in both Brasilia and the United States. They share this trait with historical right-wing extremists (as well as other extremists).

However, the opportunities for improbable moves, empty staging, and fan bases built on a never-ending string of losses have increased thanks to cable news and the Internet. The fact that the revolution is on television is enough; it doesn't matter if it actually happens.

The liberals and those on the center-left, who are populism's adversaries, have benefitted greatly from this confluence of traits by avoiding the fallout from their own conceit or errors more often than not. Contrary to what our elite institutions are capable of, populist rebels and their avatars are almost always prepared with increased irresponsibility, ineffective anti-politics, and a toxic mix of the authoritarian and the incompetent. Then, as in the case of the new Republican House of Representatives or Liz Truss's failed Conservative government, they turn back to the unpopular policies that initially sparked the populist rebellion.

For those who cannot embrace liberalism, for whatever reason, and who are confined to the right (or the fringes of the left), this leaves them with two main options. They can sift through the confusion in the hopes of spotting signs of a more positive populism—the kind that exists in theory but isn't actually being practiced by Trump or Bolsonaro—that various intellectuals have been attempting to introduce into their movement at the time.

the kind of new right, or even a newer right-left fusion, that is always just around the corner, coming from Trump. They can also try to see totally beyond populism and treat it as a failed experiment, as fundamentally unrealistic, both in its plans and its effects, and in the grotesque Latin American imitation of American January 6th that occurred on January 8th.

They can sift through the confusion in the hopes of spotting signs of a more positive populism—the kind that exists in theory but isn't actually being practiced by Trump or Bolsonaro—that various intellectuals have been attempting to introduce into their movement at the time. the kind of new right, or even a newer right-left fusion, that is always just around the corner, coming from Trump.

Additionally, they can attempt to see completely beyond populism and treat it as a failed experiment that was fundamentally unrealistic in both its intentions and outcomes, as well as in the grotesque Latin American imitation of the American January 6th that took place on January 8. They can sift through the confusion in the hopes of spotting signs of a more positive populism—the kind that exists in theory but isn't actually being practiced by Trump or Bolsonaro—that various intellectuals have been attempting to introduce into their movement at the time.

the kind of new right, or even a newer right-left fusion, that is always just around the corner, coming from Trump. Additionally, they can attempt to see completely beyond populism and treat it as a failed experiment that was fundamentally unrealistic in both its intentions and outcomes, as well as in the grotesque Latin American imitation of the American January 6th that took place on January 8.

the kind of a new right or even a newer right-left fusion that is always just around the corner, the kind that various intellectuals were attempting to introduce into their movement during the Trump era. Additionally, they can attempt to see completely beyond populism and treat it as a failed experiment that was fundamentally unrealistic in both its intentions and outcomes, as well as in the grotesque Latin American imitation of the American January 6th that took place on January 8.

the kind of a new right or even a newer right-left fusion that is always just around the corner, the kind that various intellectuals were attempting to introduce into their movement during the Trump era. They can also try to see totally beyond populism and treat it as a failed experiment, as fundamentally unrealistic, both in its plans and its effects, and in the grotesque Latin American imitation of American January 6th that occurred on January 8th.

We have been debating for the past two years whether the central element of the January 6 riot, when the mob stormed the Capitol after being enraged by their displeasure with the results of the 2020 election, was ambition in the background or futility and unreality in the background.